Thursday, December 24, 2015

Ichimoku Renko Trading Strategy (2)

Ichimoku Renko Trading Strategy charts as they happened today'

Here are some charts from today showing some nice entries and relatively easy pips. You can see the entries are best when there is a trend and that they are tricky when the market is ranging.






















For more information as to how to set up these charts, have a look at this page


For more information on Ichimoku see this page.

Euro Update As At December 23, 2015

The EurUsd Currency pair seems to be searching for a bottom as you can see on the second chart which is a weekly chart.

Certain political events in the near future are bound to influence this par and move it out of the current range.













Here are some insights and views by various writers which you may find of interest.






Dollar Rises Against Euro - Wall Street Journal
 Wed, 23 Dec 2015 17:52:44 GMT
Wall Street JournalDollar Rises Against EuroWall Street Journal  The dollar advanced against the euro on Wednesday as some investors re-entered trades for the common currency to weaken, predicting the paths for monetary policy between central banks in ...
Read more ...


Dollar ekes out gain against euro after weak eurozone data - MarketWatch
 Wed, 23 Dec 2015 21:31:55 GMT
Dollar ekes out gain against euro after weak eurozone dataMarketWatch  “French GDP for the third quarter was revised down, and consumer spending is also looking softer, which has led the euro slightly lower against the dollar,” said Will Hedden, senior ...
Read more ...


Pound to Euro: Expectations of More ECB Stimulus Unlikely, Banca IMI - Pound Sterling Live
 Wed, 23 Dec 2015 10:11:22 GMT
Pound Sterling LivePound to Euro: Expectations of More ECB Stimulus Unlikely, Banca IMIPound Sterling Live  An increase in Euro-zone government bond Issuance of 150bn in Q1 2016 compared to Q4 2015, is also forecast to weigh on bond prices - but at the ...
Read more ...


Study: Most Finnish residents would keep euro despite perceived economic drawbacks - YLE News
 Wed, 23 Dec 2015 13:16:00 GMT
YLE NewsStudy: Most Finnish residents would keep euro despite perceived economic drawbacksYLE News   A large number of Finnish residents believe that the economy would fare better without the euro, but a majority would still prefer to keep the common cu ...
Read more ...


Pound to Euro: Today's GBP/EUR Exchange Rate Predictions and Live Conversions - Exchange Rates UK
 Wed, 23 Dec 2015 18:56:15 GMT
Profit ConfidentialPound to Euro: Today's GBP/EUR Exchange Rate Predictions and Live ConversionsExchange Rates UK   Following the uncertain result of Sunday's Spanish parliamentary elections, the Pound Sterling to Euro exchange rate has been trending sl ...
Read more ...


EUR/USD – Euro Steady, US Durables Next - MarketPulse (blog)
 Wed, 23 Dec 2015 09:42:06 GMT
EUR/USD – Euro Steady, US Durables NextMarketPulse (blog)   As well, this move is expected to be the first in a series of incremental rate hikes over the course of 2016, and higher interest rates means that the US dollar will become even more attractive ...
Read more ...


'Euro' and 'dollar' highest growing financial search terms on Google - Daily News Egypt
 Wed, 23 Dec 2015 23:16:34 GMT
Daily News Egypt'Euro' and 'dollar' highest growing financial search terms on GoogleDaily News Egypt   According to Google's indicators, “Price of the euro today” is the most growing search, with rates increasing by 180%. It is followed by “the price of ...
Read more ...

Tuesday, December 22, 2015

US Dollar Index Update as at December 22, 2015



US Dollar Index is showing a little weakness at this time.

Both the Macd and RSI have been showing bearish divergence, it may be that there will be a significant decline as weeks pass.

Today’s close at 98.23 is just about to go below the 50 MA, next support level will be at about 96.50


DaveM-0220






Dollar Poised to Snap Three-Month Rally as Gradual Fed Pace Seen - Bloomberg
Tue, 22 Dec 2015 15:44:05 GMT
Malay Mail OnlineDollar Poised to Snap Three-Month Rally as Gradual Fed Pace SeenBloombergIntercontinental Exchange Inc.'s U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against six major peers, was down 0.4 percent as of 10:18 a.m. in New York. The ga ...
Read more ...
 
 
FOREX-Dollar index pares losses after US GDP data - Reuters
Tue, 22 Dec 2015 13:43:00 GMT
FOREX-Dollar index pares losses after US GDP dataReutersEconomists polled by Reuters had forecast third-quarter GDP growth revised down to a 1.9 percent rate. The dollar index which measures the greenback against the euro, yen and four other currenci ...
Read more ...
 
 
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis for December 22, 2015 - FXTimes (press release) (registration)
Tue, 22 Dec 2015 06:57:00 GMT
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis for December 22, 2015FXTimes (press release) (registration)The US Dollar Index has moved lower from 99.25/30 levels earlier as discussed here. The index is trading around 98.40/50 levels, looking for a retracement/p ...
Read more ...
 
 
Gold Extends Early Gains as US Dollar Index Weaker - Forbes
Mon, 21 Dec 2015 15:13:00 GMT
Gold Extends Early Gains as US Dollar Index WeakerForbes(Kitco News) - Gold prices are trading solidly higher in late-morning dealings Monday, on follow-through technical buying from Friday's rebound and on some short covering in the futures market. ...
Read more ...
 
 
Dollar Index and Services PMI Both Fell - Market Realist
Mon, 21 Dec 2015 16:04:59 GMT
Market RealistDollar Index and Services PMI Both FellMarket RealistThe US Dollar Index measures the strength of the US dollar against other major currencies. It fell by 0.58% on December 18, 2015. The index was on a correction mode after the near 1.5 ...
Read more ...


























Gold Trading Strategy as at December 22, 2015

Gold
.
Gold price: why it could go below $1000 – or above $1100 - The Week UK
Tue, 22 Dec 2015 11:48:45 GMT
The Week UKGold price: why it could go below $1000 – or above $1100The Week UKReceived wisdom has it that gold falls in price when interest rates rise – and this cycle was set in motion by the Federal Reserve's raising of interest rates last week. Hi ...
Read more ...


Something 'rare' is happening in gold: Gartman - CNBC
Tue, 22 Dec 2015 15:48:00 GMT
Something 'rare' is happening in gold: GartmanCNBCIt's been a bad year for gold, but one widely followed commodities watcher says the bottom is in. 'So after a 4½ year bear market, it's time to be bullish,' Dennis Gartman told 'Fast Money' traders Mo ...
Read more ...


Gold steadies after two-day rally as dollar retreats - Reuters
Tue, 22 Dec 2015 15:46:00 GMT
ReutersGold steadies after two-day rally as dollar retreatsReutersLONDON Gold held near $1,080 an ounce on Tuesday after a two-day rally, benefiting from a retreat in the dollar, though uncertainty over the pace of U.S. interest rate increases capped ...
Read more ...


Gold Price Analysis: Churning Near Support - DailyFX
Mon, 21 Dec 2015 21:22:29 GMT
DailyFXGold Price Analysis: Churning Near SupportDailyFX... - Gold is continuing to catch a bid below $1,087.05; and traders looking to get short should wait for resistance to show. - Gold has been really volatile lately, so if you are or are plannin ...
Read more ...

Monday, August 31, 2015

Price Action As A Trading Strategy



Meet Al Brooks, the trader and author.


Al Brooks having experienced trading for many years has taken the time to author three excellent books which are aimed at teaching Price Action Trading.

He does an excellent job of defining trends, breakouts, reversals and relates those to his favourite charts the ES 5 minute with some references to 15 minute charts.

Many traders base their complete approach on Al Brooks methodology as it has been proven excellent over many years.

Some readers of his books become frustrated with his writing style, however, what he teaches is pertinent to trading and that is what is important.

Here are the three titles and links to the Amazon site for your perusal.

Trading Price Action Trends

Trading Price Action Reversals

Trading Price Action Trading Ranges

USDCAD Trading Strategy as At August 31, 2015




How will talk of Recession Affect the Loonie?


The USDCAD pair is trading at 1,3253, down a little from the recent high of 1.3271 an hour or so ago.

Here is a current chart.


DaveM-0081


With an election happening in Canada and a recession about to be declared, there is a lot of uncertainty hanging over the Loonie.
As long as the price of Oil and Gold remains weak, Canada’s economy is spinning its wheels.

Here are some recent opinions as to the Canadian dollar.

USD/CAD Forecast Aug. 31-Sep. 4 - Forex Crunch
 Sun, 30 Aug 2015 18:15:00 GMT
Forex CrunchUSD/CAD Forecast Aug. 31-Sep. 4Forex CrunchUSD/CAD gained strength early in the week but then retracted and was almost unchanged on the week, as the pair closed just under the 1.32 line. There are six events this week, highlighted by GDP ...

Read more ...



USD/CAD Halts Weakness, Risk Turns To 1.3352 Level - Investing.com
 Sun, 30 Aug 2015 07:04:03 GMT
USD/CAD Halts Weakness, Risk Turns To 1.3352 LevelInvesting.comUSD/CAD: With USD/CAD seen halting its corrective weakness and turning higher during Friday trading session, risk of more strength is likely. This development leaves the pair targeting it ...

Read more ...


USD/CAD Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Mon, 31 Aug 2015 03:37:19 GMT
USD/CAD Daily OutlookAction ForexIntraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment for some consolidation. Further rise is still expected as long as 1.2951 support holds. Above 1.3353 will target next long term retracement level at 1.3469. Howe ...

Read more ...



USD/CAD Loonie Faces Big Week as Recession Looms - MarketPulse (blog)
Fri, 28 Aug 2015 20:13:56 GMT
MarketPulse (blog)USD/CAD Loonie Faces Big Week as Recession LoomsMarketPulse (blog)The CAD had a rough week as the Chinese stock market rout grabbed headlines and spread panic around the world. Canada was under attack from two fronts. Lower demand f ...

Read more ...

Here is a Point and Figure Chart (daily)






Good Trading!










TMA Bands Scalping Strategy



The idea of using the TMA Bands as a Scalping Strategy can be quite simple. One the price bar has touched or crossed the upper or lower band, it is due to retrace.
For the trader, he has to confirm trend and his entry point.

I favour using the Stochastic Momentum Index and like to wait until I see %K cross over %D. That is my own preference, each trader has to find his own method.

The important thing is to ensure that the chart ‘talks’ to the trader.

Some traders like to observe a higher time frame chart  for signals and then enter on a lower time frame such as a one minute chart.

Here are three 15 minute charts from this morning which seem to be valid entries. You will notice that the price has approached or crossed the TMA Bands and the Stochastic Momentum Index is crossing.

Enjoy!!












Saturday, August 29, 2015

CCI Divergence Trading Strategy As At August 28, 2015

Using CCI Divergence as a trading strategy can be quite effective, once the trend change is confirmed by price action.

I have assembled a couple charts to show current divergences which may be useful signals in coming days.
















These are just a few of many that are available to observe on many time frames. I choose the higher time frames as those are the ones that I trade most frequently.

Here are some articles that describe CCI divergence and give some examples. Do note that some of these articles are a few years old.

CCI Divergence 5mn @ Forex Factory
http://www.forexfactory.com/ Wed, 28 Jan 2009 11:23:29 -0800
Bonjour à tous. I'd like to share another simple method with you and based on CCI divergence. CCI 10 (Typical price HLC/3) TF 5mn. The CCI divergence must be beyond of 100/-100. You sell the divergence when the closed ...

Read more ...



CCI Divergence indicator for Thinkorswim TOS - Patternsmart
http://www.patternsmart.com/cart/ Tue, 23 Jun 2015 13:52:33 -0700
Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is an oscillator which can help traders to identify over-sold and over-bought level. VIP price is: $69. CCI Divergence indicator gives possible reversal signals when there are discrepancies between CCI and ...

Read more ...



Urban Forex CCI Divergence Breakout Strategy Testing Setup
http://www.tradingheroes.com/ Thu, 13 Nov 2014 19:19:01 -0800
How to backtest and forward test the CCI Divergence Breakout Strategy. It will give you the complete testing plan and software tutorials.

Read more ...



CCI Divergence Breakout Strategy for Binary Options Trading
http://www.binaryoptionsthatsuck.com/ Tue, 01 Jul 2014 03:00:01 -0700
Well… here comes the tricky part, we have to spot divergence between price movement and CCI, if you are not familiar with this concept don't drop down your weapons, BOTS is giving a helping hand just click here and find ...

Read more ...

Here is a video showing one use of CCI Divergence

And here are a couple more posts on Divergence

boutique trading strategies: Can We use CCI Divergences to ...

boutique trading strategies: Divergent Opportunities for ...

boutique trading strategies: Renko Trading Strategies (1)

Enjoy!

Gold Analysis As At August 28, 2015

This past week has seen the metal rise a few dollars, perhaps we can analyze gold to a certain extent and see what may be occurring.

I have several charts in this post, each one has its own story to tell.

This first chart shows the Ichimoku Cloud, interesting is that price went up to the resistance of the cloud and then retraced, and then repeated. The cloud has strong resistance to price moving higher.








This next chart , a 240 minute chart shows a Fibonacci pattern, a bearish AB = CD which could mean that price will go south. These patterns are not always accurate, this is merely an indication which would have to be confirmed by price action.




This next daily chart illustrates the current price channel in which price is contained, often price will move from one side to the other of the channel, the channel indicator is designed to contain the price. It seems, from the two prior charts, that the middle line of the channel is where there is significant resistance to an advance at this time.






 This chart is also a 240 minute showing the Camarilla indicator, price action often takes place between these lines which have been set up to measure potential moves, and it is not always accurate, just an indication that has to be verified by price action.





This last chart is a monthly chart, the indicator in the lower chart is the Commodity Channel Index. I wanted to post this chart so as to point out the bullish divergence. The period of divergence on this chart is just over two years long which indicates that it is a powerful signal. Again, divergences do not always result in a price move, they have to be confirmed by price action, In this case I tend to believe that there will be a bullish move as months pass.





Have a great weekend!


Friday, August 28, 2015

Renko Trading Strategy EURUSD August 28, 2015


EURUSD is sliding on this Renko Chart


This morning the EURUSD pair is down considerably after rising earlier.

You can see on this Renko chart that price has fallen from a high of 1.1309 to 1.1258.


Renko Trading Strategy Eurusd August 28, 2015





The fall in the EURUSD today may be related to a softening rate of inflation in Europe as well as today’s meeting of the European Central Bank. There is some feeling that there will be Quantitative Easing proposed which may have considerable effect on the EURUSD.

Her are a couple current articles on EURUSD.


Slowing German CPI to Hit EUR/USD Ahead of ECB Meeting? - DailyFX
http://news.google.com Fri, 28 Aug 2015 08:00:26 GMT
Slowing German CPI to Hit EUR/USD Ahead of ECB Meeting?DailyFXSigns of slowing inflation in Europe's largest economy may drag on EUR/USD and push the European Central Bank (ECB) to broaden its quantitative easing (QE) program as it undermines the Gov ...
Read more ...
 
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Aiming Below 1.12 Figure - DailyFX
http://news.google.com Fri, 28 Aug 2015 03:45:45 GMT
DailyFXEUR/USD Technical Analysis: Aiming Below 1.12 FigureDailyFXThe Euro declined for a third consecutive day against the US Dollar, with prices now aiming at support below the 1.12 figure. A daily close below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1 ...
Read more ...
 
 
Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.1370 - Action Forex
http://news.google.com Fri, 28 Aug 2015 08:30:56 GMT
Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.1370Action ForexAs the single currency has recovered after falling to 1.1203 yesterday, suggesting consolidation above this level would be seen and corrective bounce to resistance at 1.1364 cannot be ruled out, however ...
Read more ...














Monday, August 17, 2015

7 Ways to Optimize Your Trading Strategy


Using this tool can greatly enhance your Trading Strategy


I want to share with you today one specific feature of the FSBPro software, the optimizer. I believe that you will be amazed at the capabilities of this tool, I will attempt to demonstrate.

We will start with a randomly generated strategy which uses the Macd and a close and reverse option, meaning that each time the Mac crosses zero, the trade is closed and another entered going the opposite direction. No special reason for this strategy, I just wanted to have something to work with.

Here is the strategy as it is after generating for a few minutes
imageimageimage

You can see that the balance is shown as 87,442. I am going to use the optimizer and see what happens when I optimize for a higher net.

image

This result may be entirely unsatisfactory based on other metrics, such as Win/Loss or Sharpe Ratio or….  Once this run is finished we will have a look at other metrics to see what can be improved..
Here is some results from optimizing for Net Profit

image

There was a gain in the net profit, but looking at some other metrics, this result is horrible. Notice the win loss and consecutive losses.

I will optimize the win loss, you can see the setting in the diagram.
image

I was able to improve the Win/Loss as well as the Net Profit, also the consecutive losses was reduced considerably
image

I do have a concern that the losses are awkward to deal with, I will now attempt to improve the Sharpe Ratio. I can see that I am going to have a problem with the equity curve, it is just not going to end up satisfactory.

After playing with the controls and attempting different things, I could see that the equity curve was not going to be satisfactory and I have discarded the strategy.

Here are the metrics on which the optimizer will work.

image

As you can see this optimizer is quite powerful.

I will work with a new strategy and post developments, hopefully better results than this.

Here are a couple more posts referring to Forex Strategy Builder.

http://boutiquetradingstrategies.blogspot.ca/2014/08/is-macd-worthwhile-for-strategy.html
http://boutiquetradingstrategies.blogspot.ca/2014/04/trading-strategy-based-on-bill-williams.html
http://boutiquetradingstrategies.blogspot.ca/2014/08/bill-williams-trading-strategy-part-4.html

Awesome Oscillator Renko Divergence Trade from August 17, 2015



Using Divergence as a trading strategy can be rewarding and using the awesome oscillator with Renko bars can be quite simple.

Here is an example from today’s trading on the EURUSD currency pair.

AweSome Oscillator Divergence  Renko August 17, 2015

Sunday, August 16, 2015

Renko Awesome Oscillator Divergence Trading Strategy



A trader usually wants to know when the end of a trend is about appear so that he can adjust his trading strategy to take advantage of the next trend.

Of course, divergence between price and oscillator is one way to be prepared.

One of the indicators that will point out divergence is the Awesome Oscillator which is found in most charting packages.

Using Renko bars together with an oscillator is a great way to eliminate the chop and see clearly when there is a divergence appearing.

I have attached three charts on which I have marked divergences, just to give an idea as to how simple it is to spot them.

Divergences are not to be traded blindly as the market does not always change trend with a divergence. Therefore we have to observe price action before making any entry.

Screen time and practice is required to hone the skills in trading and divergence is not a shortcut to any success, the hours have to be put in to learning how to use divergence, the same as any other tool.





Awesome Oscillator Divergence Renko_Trading_Strategy 1




Awesome Oscillator Divergence Renkp_Trading_Strategy




Awesome Oscillator Divergence Renko_Trading_Strategy 2

For a detailed explanation as to the use of the Awesome Oscillator please see this page



Enjoy!

Saturday, August 15, 2015

US Dollar Index Trading Strategy As At August 15, 2015


The US Dollar Index will certainly affect the trading strategies of the several currency pairs that make up this basket.

There is much discussion in the United States and elsewhere as to when interest rates may start to move higher and that will certainly affect all of the currencies.

Lets have a look at several charts and see what clues we can discover as to what may be a future direction.

This first chart has the Macd and a quick glance shows a bearish divergence. You will see that there is quite an amount of Bearish influence showing as you glance at these charts.




This next chart, a daily chart shows a bearish Fibonacci Pattern which seems to confirm the bearish divergence on the Macd.



Now we have the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart showing that price is above the cloud. It may be that the cloud is going to provide support and prevent much of a movement south, perhaps a few ranging days are ahead.



Another Bearish Fibonacci Pattern on the monthly chart.




We can see on this chart that price is below the pivot and has been fluctuating above support, directionless, so far.



Price has moved below the weekly pivot and also below the monthly pivot.




Here is more discussion by several authors. You will see a variance in expectations as to direction.

US Dollar Index Forecast August 17, 2015, Technical Analysis - FX Empire
http://news.google.com Sat, 15 Aug 2015 04:53:00 GMT
FX EmpireUS Dollar Index Forecast August 17, 2015, Technical AnalysisFX EmpireThe US Dollar Index went back and forth during the course of the session on Friday, bouncing off the 96 level for support. With that being the case, the market looks as if ...
Read more ...
US Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – August 14, 2015 Forecast - FX Empire
http://news.google.com Fri, 14 Aug 2015 11:22:28 GMT
FX EmpireUS Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – August 14, 2015 ForecastFX EmpireSeptember U.S. Dollar Index futures are trading slightly lower shortly before the cash market opening. For the second consecutive day, the market is trading i ...
Read more ...
Dollar Slips This Week on Blurred Picture for US Rates - Wall Street Journal
http://news.google.com Fri, 14 Aug 2015 20:18:39 GMT
USA TODAYDollar Slips This Week on Blurred Picture for US RatesWall Street JournalThe dollar edged broadly lower this week as uncertainty over China and depressed global inflation pressures clouded investors' view on U.S. interest rates and limited t ...
Read more ...
The Week Ahead: How Important Is China or The Dollar To Your Portfolio? - Forbes
http://news.google.com Sat, 15 Aug 2015 12:49:44 GMT
ForbesThe Week Ahead: How Important Is China or The Dollar To Your Portfolio?ForbesI began analyzing the financial markets in 1982 when I became the research director for a financial advisory firm and provided regular market analysis on stocks, commo ...
Read more ...
China hoarding gold in move to challenge dollar - WND.com
http://news.google.com Sat, 15 Aug 2015 01:25:38 GMT
WND.comChina hoarding gold in move to challenge dollarWND.comBorneman noted the IMF is scheduled to meet in October, and on the agenda is whether to allow China's currency into the SDR pool, a basket of currencies that includes the U.S. dollar, the e ...
Read more ...
Pound to Dollar Rate Forecast to Decline from Here - Pound Sterling Live
http://news.google.com Sat, 15 Aug 2015 10:58:00 GMT
Exchange Rates UKPound to Dollar Rate Forecast to Decline from HerePound Sterling Live“Sterling outperformance though largely stemmed from euro strength against the dollar. Underlying sentiment for the pound suffered in data this week that showed the ...
Read more ...
Dollar Looks for Fed Move as Major Counterparts Gain Ground - DailyFX
http://news.google.com Sat, 15 Aug 2015 03:34:00 GMT
DailyFXDollar Looks for Fed Move as Major Counterparts Gain GroundDailyFXThe 'Summer Lull' doesn't do the US Dollar any favors. As a favored haven currency, the reduced volatility - and thereby risk - curbs its innate demand. Further, as market depth ...
Read more ...