Tuesday, December 6, 2016

Gold Analysis as at December 6, 2016

Gold is causing the bulls some grief this week as it is just not quite ready to move higher. A brief flurry after the results of the election in Italy quickly eased off and the metal is sitting in a range.

Expectations of an interest rate rise in the United States is providing a damper on any price rise.

Recent economic numbers from the United States indicate that the US economy is doing well, Gold had risen on the expectation that a Trump Presidency would bring volatility to the market and that has not happened. Instead, the markets have risen sharply since the US Election and the price of Gold has drifted lower.

At present the price of GOLD is hovering at close to a ten month low while markets and bond yields are moving higher.

Monetary restrictions in India have contributed to a decline in demand for Gold from the jewellery industry.

There are some signs of a future price rise on the technical charts.


First, a Bullish Fibonacci Pattern on the Weekly chart

DaveM-0520.jpg




On this chart , Daily, there is some bullish Divergence showing;

DaveM-0521.jpg

However, the Gold price at this time is stagnant and until investors start to move money into Gold it will not be moving far.

I have located an excellent article that I am copying into here in its entirety. This is a very detailed research into the management of Gold and well worth reading a few times.


Wednesday, November 30, 2016

3 Excellent Forex News Sites










There are many sites  that provide excellent news and news summaries. I have selected these three for today as they each offer something unique and also very valuable to a trader.

A trader has only so many hours in a day and needs access to news quickly for decision making purposes. These sites are  quite different from each other and present very useful aspects.



These news sites I peruse often when looking for updates as to what might be happening with different currencies.

Some of these sites offer perspectives based on the economies of the countries involved and some of them are focused on news announcements.

They are listed in no particular order as each has its own merits and would be hard to be rating them as best or second best . These are all excellent.

ForexFactory


ForexFactory has a comprehensive news site featuring very current articles from many sources around the web.

Excellent about ForexFactory news is that you can select different views so as to be able to focus on certain areas.


 .
Each news item can be assigned an ‘Impact’ rating to easily indicate which news has potential to affect the market and there is the facility to drill down with each item to see the forecast expectations.








The ForexFactory site is simply huge. The forum has thousands of threads and there are many, many posts per minute. This is a favorite for many traders.




MyFxBook


This site has some unique features for news. The Economic Calendar shows the upcoming news announcements with their impact and what is great about this page is that it gives the time remaining and then a notification as the time approaches.








 As well as news from the web they offer some great charting news as shown in the diagram. You can drill down to see what candlesticks are showing on different  time frames currently.








The Heat Map is also current and updated frequently, a valuable tool when checking for trends.






In addition they offer ‘Social Trading’ which allows an investor to follow the trades of successful accounts and copy those into their own accounts.The My FxBook site is a very busy site based on the services which are offered, particularly the strategy analysis and news features.




Finance Magnates


This site is a huge news site devoted to many aspects of news for business as well as traders. It was originated in 2009 by Michael Greenberg, initially to cover the Forex industry and has since involved into a gigantic news source.
There are many different categories of news on the site, and also a huge selection of resources for business, developers and traders.
One very interesting section is the Interviews, videos of interviews with industry leaders.
Because there is so much to look at on the site and the news is being updated constantly, there is a sidebar showing the last article posted, this feature is very handy for someone looking through the site.
One aspect of the sitye that is a deterrent is that a lot of the pages take a while to load and that may prove to be annoying to some site visitors.





Sunday, November 27, 2016

Hidden Divergence AUDUSD

Hidden Divergence is great for pointing out what may be a trade that continues in the direction of the trend.



60 minute chart of AUDUSD


This chart shows a super specimen of Hidden Divergence doing what it is supposed to do.

While price had been making higher lows the oscillators had been making lower lows....... and sure enough price continued the upward trend.

For more about Hidden Divergence click here.

Gold Analysis as at November 27, 2016



Gold price has recently slipped to about a 9 month low, although today there is some sign of a recovery.


The decline in Gold is caused partially by the rise in the US Dollar and the prospect of rising interest rates in the next month or so.

There may be a further decline in months to come, however, currently it appears to be oversold and will probably rise.

Three charts below this paragraph indicate Fibonacci Patterns that are bullish. (Fibonacci Patterns do not have 100 percent reliability)

Weekly




Daily




4 Hour

Despite the good news about a rise in the price of Gold, there is reason for caution, as follows:

By Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT, MFTA from Gold Seek  http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1480266000.php
Last week we wrote that the 2016 bull market in Gold and gold stocks had gone off course. It had moved too far out of the historical boundaries to remain a bull market. There was also other evidence of such including but not limited to rising real yields. Gold’s last hope was to hold $1200-$1210 and rebound back to the highs. It has broken bull market support ($1200-$1210 and $1230) and could be on its way to $1050 in the next few months.

US Dollar Index Update as at November 27, 2016



Bearish AB = CD




 US Dollar dropped back a little on Friday having reached a 13 year high on Thursday, it still ended up for the week.

There is great speculation that the US Federal Reserve may hike interest rates in December and there is anticipation of better economic reports on the horizon.

United States housing starts are at the highest rate since August of 2007.

Jobless claims are at their lowest since 1973.

All of these are contributing to a strong US Dollar.


Wednesday, November 23, 2016

Hidden Divergence Trading Strategy AUDUSD

The Aussie is about ready for a short entry.

AUDUSD 4 hour chart
AUDUSD 4 hour Chart
 The pair has already turned south and the divergences are very clear.

Note that the Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen have crossed indicating an entry, however, I am a bit cautious at this point.

I would wait wait until the PPO (lowest chart) crosses to get confirmation.

The price of iron ore has increased substantially in the past couple days which boosted the currency, however the rise and strength of the US Dollar has offset that, hence my caution.


Video about Hidden Divergence