Saturday, January 11, 2014

My Gold Analysis comment January 11, 2014






Index rebalancing may be accounting for some of the upward pressure on Gold at this time. 

 The GSCI Index and UBS Commodity Index are resetting asset weightings and funds which follow these indices therefore have to rebalance as well.


Some people regard this as causing Gold to test 1,250.00 in the coming week.


The weak jobs data has given some impetus to Gold, there are a few more reports such as personal consumption expenses and the CPI, which if soft, will work to support Gold in a move higher.


The fear of rising interest rates has contributed to the decline in Gold, one mitigating factor may be the health of US Equity markets and the future policies of the Federal Reserve regarding the 'taper'.

We certainly can not be sure that Gold has bottomed, many experts see a price of $1,100.00 before trending much higher.

Update, January 26, 2016;

Here is a chart from today showing that Gold is just starting to move off the bottom, lower still than when this post was originally written.

How many times did the bulls promise that price would rapidly rise to the heights before it finally moved, two years later?

Image XAUUSD chart dated January 27, 2016



      





My Gold Analysis January 10, 2014

On a Friday which was NFP day there were some good scalp trades available and I have attached two charts on which the entries are pretty straight forward. I use the alligator and re enter at the fractals as the move progresses, a simple and conservative and also profitable setup.








Analysis


Gold got a little shot in the arm from the NFP today and, as you can see, price is well above the Ichimoku Cloud on the 240 minute chart below.





This next chart has the Camarilla indicator and price is well above the last target and now has formed a double top. This could be interesting as the markets open next week, will price move ahead or back away from the resistance.






On the chart below we can see that price is approaching a Fibonacci line, the 38.2 and there may be a difficult time to pass this area in future







Here we have the Daily Chart and, as you can see, Price is below the Ichimoku Cloud which, at this time, appears to provide significant resistance to an upward move. So far as we look at these charts in today's post, there is not going to be an easy upward move for a while.







This last chart, I keep only for the purpose of detecting divergences, to see if there is possibility showing of a change in trend. Today, on this 4 hour chart there appears to be no indication of divergence.










Tuesday, January 7, 2014

Gold Analysis WrapUp January 7, 2013


  • Today we saw Gold closing lower, near the session low around $1,230.00 per ounce. This was influenced partially by the stronger US Dollar. Price is now well off the high achieved on Monday.

  • Many experts are expecting more volatility in future, particularly as rebalancing of indexes approaches.

  • The 2013 decline in the price of Gold has causes a loss of about $10 Billion for the Swiss National Bank and a review of policies is being studied.

  • Also, the decline in 2013 has ended a 12 year win streak for Gold, there is a current exodus led by George Soros, according to SEC filings, unloading his holdings.and John Paulson, largest holder in the SPDR Gold Trust is reluctant to personally invest any more until he sees a return to inflation.

  • Miners, such as McQuarrie are conducting cost cutting measures which may see production being reduced in future.

  • Other factors which can influence price in coming months may be short covering at the COMEX as the amount of physical gold available for delivery is declining rapidly.







Gold Price testing support after dropping


The Bears have exerted their influence today and driven price down. If this continues the Camarilla chart is showing a short may be in order










On this 4 hr chart price is still above the support of the Ichimoku Cloud





My view is that the resistance provided by the Ichimoku Cloud on the daily chart will be formidable for months to come.



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Gold Jan 6 Point & Figure Chart



A Point & Figure chart is a great thing to refer to on a regular basis, especially to determine historic support and resistance as well as the projected target price.
As you can see on the chart heading the projected price for Gold at this time is 1,120.00, about $100 dollars from where it sits today.





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Monday, January 6, 2014

Gold one minute Scalping Chart


I use this chart when I want to scalp on a one minute chart. Bill Williams devised the 'Alligator' method and for me parts of that method work quite well.
The shaded areas on the chart reflect the fractals and I use those for entry and adding positions.
As you can see I have genesis indicators at the bottom to keep me in tune with what is happening on higher time frames.
I thought I would share this chart with those interested, I use it on currency pairs as well.









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Gold Volatility

Trading Gold today is exciting based on the volatility. Price retreated briefly to the support of the Ichimoku Cloud on that long bar, I would think that economic news may have motivated the Bear for a while.









Volumes are light and some forms of technical analysis will be invalidated by the lack of volume. It will be difficult for the long term traders to invest in Gold, some larger hedge funds are reducing positions







I will soon post a chart that I use for scalping Gold, as soon as I have a bit more time.

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Sunday, January 5, 2014

Gold Support and Resistance 240 minute chart



The Camarilla Indicator shows that price has met resistance on the four
hour chart and has temporarily dropped back after a bullish bar. The
market is still looking for direction as the markets have not been open
for long at this time.
Technical analysis is fascinating as there are many methods of measuring what is occurring with price and as trading goes on during the week many factors can come into play.



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Gold charts Daily and 240 minute Ichimoku Cloud



As you can see on the daily chart (above) Gold is moving towards resistance at the Ichimoku Cloud, where as it is above the cloud on the 240 minute chart(below).
The Gold Bulls will be declaring a rise when the rise could be short lived as price meets resistance.








It will be a few days before we can know what is the direction.
(Click to make charts larger)


StockCharts.com Tutorial re Ichimoku Cloud here
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Gold Analysis Notes

My Gold Analysis will consist mainly of relevant technical analysis charts, I will be updating the site with different types of charts on a regular basis. Trading on Gold is quite speculative at this time and it is difficult to make anything which would resemble a recommendation.
There are many schools of thought regarding fundamental analysis and the direction of Gold prices, it is most difficult to know which may be accurate at this time.



Good trading..!

Fractals Jan5,2013






XAUUSD, Fractals, Awesome Oscillator
Fractals


The shaded areas on this chart are a way of showing fractals. 

Some traders use this display to enter pending orders at the top or bottom line depending on the trend.

For example, a scalper using a one minute chart will find the fractals display and the Awesome Oscillator a great combination when evaluating entries.

Description of Fractals from Investopedia.
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Gold Moves Higher



The three moving average lines on the price chart are what is called the Raghee Wave, a concept developed by Raghee Horner to detect the usefulness of a trend.

I use the Awesome Oscillator on many charts to keep track of momentum.

A definition of the Awesome Oscillator from TradingView Wiki
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