Showing posts with label trading strategy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trading strategy. Show all posts

Monday, August 17, 2015

7 Ways to Optimize Your Trading Strategy


Using this tool can greatly enhance your Trading Strategy


I want to share with you today one specific feature of the FSBPro software, the optimizer. I believe that you will be amazed at the capabilities of this tool, I will attempt to demonstrate.

We will start with a randomly generated strategy which uses the Macd and a close and reverse option, meaning that each time the Mac crosses zero, the trade is closed and another entered going the opposite direction. No special reason for this strategy, I just wanted to have something to work with.

Here is the strategy as it is after generating for a few minutes
imageimageimage

You can see that the balance is shown as 87,442. I am going to use the optimizer and see what happens when I optimize for a higher net.

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This result may be entirely unsatisfactory based on other metrics, such as Win/Loss or Sharpe Ratio or….  Once this run is finished we will have a look at other metrics to see what can be improved..
Here is some results from optimizing for Net Profit

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There was a gain in the net profit, but looking at some other metrics, this result is horrible. Notice the win loss and consecutive losses.

I will optimize the win loss, you can see the setting in the diagram.
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I was able to improve the Win/Loss as well as the Net Profit, also the consecutive losses was reduced considerably
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I do have a concern that the losses are awkward to deal with, I will now attempt to improve the Sharpe Ratio. I can see that I am going to have a problem with the equity curve, it is just not going to end up satisfactory.

After playing with the controls and attempting different things, I could see that the equity curve was not going to be satisfactory and I have discarded the strategy.

Here are the metrics on which the optimizer will work.

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As you can see this optimizer is quite powerful.

I will work with a new strategy and post developments, hopefully better results than this.

Here are a couple more posts referring to Forex Strategy Builder.

http://boutiquetradingstrategies.blogspot.ca/2014/08/is-macd-worthwhile-for-strategy.html
http://boutiquetradingstrategies.blogspot.ca/2014/04/trading-strategy-based-on-bill-williams.html
http://boutiquetradingstrategies.blogspot.ca/2014/08/bill-williams-trading-strategy-part-4.html

Awesome Oscillator Renko Divergence Trade from August 17, 2015



Using Divergence as a trading strategy can be rewarding and using the awesome oscillator with Renko bars can be quite simple.

Here is an example from today’s trading on the EURUSD currency pair.

AweSome Oscillator Divergence Renko August 17, 2015


You can see that this entry provided a nice profit, above all, it was easy to see the divergence pattern. A person could be working with several charts at the same time and observing divergences.

In another post from yesterday I pointed out a divergence on the same pair. While the divergence did give trade, it was not the greatest profit. Some of them are good and some are not so good, as with any trading strategy.
Here is the chart I am referring to, probably the best entry was to wait for a couple bars to be above the 0 line on the oscillator to ensure that there was a good move.
AweSome Oscillator Divergence Renko August 17, 2015 1



Divergence trades are plentiful, and the tools that can be used are several.

Here are a few examples of divergence:

http://boutiquetradingstrategies.blogspot.ca/2014/11/what-is-best-for-determining-divergence.html
http://boutiquetradingstrategies.blogspot.ca/2014/11/can-we-use-twiggs-money-flow-for.html
http://boutiquetradingstrategies.blogspot.ca/2014/11/exelon-is-showing-bearish-divergence.html
http://boutiquetradingstrategies.blogspot.ca/2014/11/divergent-opportunities-for-november-4.html
As I mentioned previously, divergence is not a fool proof method for a trading strategy, it is merely a tool and must be confirmed by price action

Good Trading..!

Sunday, August 16, 2015

Renko Awesome Oscillator Divergence Trading Strategy



A trader usually wants to know when the end of a trend is about appear so that he can adjust his trading strategy to take advantage of the next trend.

Of course, divergence between price and oscillator is one way to be prepared.

One of the indicators that will point out divergence is the Awesome Oscillator which is found in most charting packages.

Using Renko bars together with an oscillator is a great way to eliminate the chop and see clearly when there is a divergence appearing.

I have attached three charts on which I have marked divergences, just to give an idea as to how simple it is to spot them.

Divergences are not to be traded blindly as the market does not always change trend with a divergence. Therefore we have to observe price action before making any entry.

Screen time and practice is required to hone the skills in trading and divergence is not a shortcut to any success, the hours have to be put in to learning how to use divergence, the same as any other tool.





Awesome Oscillator Divergence Renko_Trading_Strategy 1




Awesome Oscillator Divergence Renkp_Trading_Strategy




Awesome Oscillator Divergence Renko_Trading_Strategy 2



Enjoy!

Saturday, August 15, 2015

US Dollar Index Trading Strategy As At August 15, 2015


The US Dollar Index will certainly affect the trading strategies of the several currency pairs that make up this basket.

There is much discussion in the United States and elsewhere as to when interest rates may start to move higher and that will certainly affect all of the currencies.

Lets have a look at several charts and see what clues we can discover as to what may be a future direction.

This first chart has the Macd and a quick glance shows a bearish divergence. You will see that there is quite an amount of Bearish influence showing as you glance at these charts.




This next chart, a daily chart shows a bearish Fibonacci Pattern which seems to confirm the bearish divergence on the Macd.



Now we have the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart showing that price is above the cloud. It may be that the cloud is going to provide support and prevent much of a movement south, perhaps a few ranging days are ahead.



Another Bearish Fibonacci Pattern on the monthly chart.




We can see on this chart that price is below the pivot and has been fluctuating above support, directionless, so far.



Price has moved below the weekly pivot and also below the monthly pivot.




Here is more discussion by several authors. You will see a variance in expectations as to direction.

US Dollar Index Forecast August 17, 2015, Technical Analysis - FX Empire
http://news.google.com Sat, 15 Aug 2015 04:53:00 GMT
FX EmpireUS Dollar Index Forecast August 17, 2015, Technical AnalysisFX EmpireThe US Dollar Index went back and forth during the course of the session on Friday, bouncing off the 96 level for support. With that being the case, the market looks as if ...
Read more ...
US Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – August 14, 2015 Forecast - FX Empire
http://news.google.com Fri, 14 Aug 2015 11:22:28 GMT
FX EmpireUS Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – August 14, 2015 ForecastFX EmpireSeptember U.S. Dollar Index futures are trading slightly lower shortly before the cash market opening. For the second consecutive day, the market is trading i ...
Read more ...
Dollar Slips This Week on Blurred Picture for US Rates - Wall Street Journal
http://news.google.com Fri, 14 Aug 2015 20:18:39 GMT
USA TODAYDollar Slips This Week on Blurred Picture for US RatesWall Street JournalThe dollar edged broadly lower this week as uncertainty over China and depressed global inflation pressures clouded investors' view on U.S. interest rates and limited t ...
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The Week Ahead: How Important Is China or The Dollar To Your Portfolio? - Forbes
http://news.google.com Sat, 15 Aug 2015 12:49:44 GMT
ForbesThe Week Ahead: How Important Is China or The Dollar To Your Portfolio?ForbesI began analyzing the financial markets in 1982 when I became the research director for a financial advisory firm and provided regular market analysis on stocks, commo ...
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China hoarding gold in move to challenge dollar - WND.com
http://news.google.com Sat, 15 Aug 2015 01:25:38 GMT
WND.comChina hoarding gold in move to challenge dollarWND.comBorneman noted the IMF is scheduled to meet in October, and on the agenda is whether to allow China's currency into the SDR pool, a basket of currencies that includes the U.S. dollar, the e ...
Read more ...
Pound to Dollar Rate Forecast to Decline from Here - Pound Sterling Live
http://news.google.com Sat, 15 Aug 2015 10:58:00 GMT
Exchange Rates UKPound to Dollar Rate Forecast to Decline from HerePound Sterling Live“Sterling outperformance though largely stemmed from euro strength against the dollar. Underlying sentiment for the pound suffered in data this week that showed the ...
Read more ...
Dollar Looks for Fed Move as Major Counterparts Gain Ground - DailyFX
http://news.google.com Sat, 15 Aug 2015 03:34:00 GMT
DailyFXDollar Looks for Fed Move as Major Counterparts Gain GroundDailyFXThe 'Summer Lull' doesn't do the US Dollar any favors. As a favored haven currency, the reduced volatility - and thereby risk - curbs its innate demand. Further, as market depth ...
Read more ...


























Friday, August 14, 2015

Gold Analysis As At August 14, 2015

 

Is Gold Starting to Move Up or Is This A False Start?

 

It may well be that it is time to re examine your gold trading strategy as there may be some opportunities very soon.

You will see some interesting things in these charts and also in the articles lower on the page. The devaluation of the Yuan and the increased position in Gold by China have excited the metal.

 

This first chart is a monthly chart on Gold showing three drives to the bottom and that will be a bullish pattern.

 

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Today, price met the pivot and reversed.

 

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The resistance is in the 25% retracement area, which leads me to wonder if this reversal is very strong. Perhaps we will know next week if this is a retrace and that we will see a stronger advance.

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The Ichimoku chart demonstrates that a great rise in price will encounter a lot of resistance as price meets the Ichimoku cloud. There has been downward pressure on the price of Gold for many months, only for a short time could it attempt to push through the cloud.

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Here is the Point and Figure chart for Gold, it is not showing any great signs of an advance.

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Here are some recent articles discussing various aspects of the gold market

 

XAU/USD Corrects Lower To 1114 - Action Forex

http://news.google.com Fri, 14 Aug 2015 08:41:00 GMT

XAU/USD Corrects Lower To 1114Action ForexXAU/USD Corrects Lower To 1,114. 'A further decline in volatility may reverse some of bullion's recent 'safe-haven' inspired gains.' - HSBC (based on CNBC). Pair's Outlook. Gold declined on Thursday, as worri ...

Read more ...

FxWirePro Gold rallies finally - Stay on with XAU-USD diagonal call spreads ... - EconoTimes

http://news.google.com Fri, 14 Aug 2015 10:21:00 GMT

EconoTimesFxWirePro Gold rallies finally - Stay on with XAU-USD diagonal call spreads ...EconoTimesAlthough XAUUSD has finally shown a bounce back after long streaks of bear candles but its reversal is yet be confirmed by other indicators. It has sho ...

Read more ...

Gold (XAUUSD) Big Picture Triangle Still In Play, Resistance Zone Eyed - CFD Trading

http://news.google.com Fri, 14 Aug 2015 12:06:00 GMT

CFD TradingGold (XAUUSD) Big Picture Triangle Still In Play, Resistance Zone EyedCFD TradingThe rebound in gold continues towards a major zone of resistance between 1130 and 1160. This area constitutes the November low at 1130, March low at 1142, and ...

Read more ...

Gold is Crashing! No, Wait, it's Booming! So What's Really Going on With Gold? - TIME

http://news.google.com Fri, 14 Aug 2015 14:59:00 GMT

TIMEGold is Crashing! No, Wait, it's Booming! So What's Really Going on With Gold?TIMEGold is a little strange as far as commodities go. You don't run your car on gold. It doesn't heat your home, and you can't eat it. It doesn't generate profits or p ...

Read more ...

Why Now Is A Great Time To Buy Gold - Forbes

http://news.google.com Fri, 14 Aug 2015 07:29:47 GMT

ForbesWhy Now Is A Great Time To Buy GoldForbesWith gold's recent decline to below $1,100 an ounce, I believe today is one of the best times to own gold. My three reasons for buying gold that I discussed in February have remained valid. I now want to ...

Read more ...

Gold's loud message to stock bulls - MarketWatch

http://news.google.com Fri, 14 Aug 2015 18:33:00 GMT

Gold's loud message to stock bullsMarketWatchGold is a controversial metal. Some people hate it as an investment because it provides no income, and is a "relic of the past.” Some people love it, arguing it is the safest form of currency in the world ...

Read more ...

China reveals increase in gold holdings - Financial Times

http://news.google.com Fri, 14 Aug 2015 10:30:46 GMT

Motley FoolChina reveals increase in gold holdingsFinancial TimesChina released data on its gold holdings for the second time in a month on Friday in a sign of greater transparency as it moved to an international standard of reporting its reserves. T ...

Read more ...

Gold Caps Biggest Rally Since June as Haven Appeal Shines Again - Bloomberg

http://news.google.com Fri, 14 Aug 2015 15:16:34 GMT

ForbesGold Caps Biggest Rally Since June as Haven Appeal Shines AgainBloombergGold capped the biggest weekly gain in two months as the metal's haven appeal finally started attracting investors again. China's unexpected yuan devaluation this week roil ...

Read more ...

Thursday, August 13, 2015

Renko Moving Average Trading Strategy


Here is a very simple and profitable Trading Strategy using a Moving Average, Renko Bars and the Stochastic Oscillator.



You will easily recognize this as a profitable strategy and so simple..

Configure the chart

We need on the chart Renko Bars, a 25 Moving Average and Stochastic Oscillator set at 14,3,3.

Long Entry


The Stochastic has been below the 20 line and is crossing back up, the Renko bars have crossed above the moving average a couple bars after the stochastic cross. You can see the arrows on the chart below.

image




Short Entry

The stochastic has been above the 80 line and hooked down, the Renko bars have crossed below the moving average a couple bars after the stochastic cross. Refer to the arrows on the chart.


image


Those are the two basic entries for this system. You may find that you wish to add to your position when there is a continuation trade available. I will post some examples of continuation trades on another post.

For reference here are a couple more Renko methods, you will see that they too are quite simple.

http://boutiquetradingstrategies.blogspot.ca/2015/08/how-to-build-forex-renkotrading.html
http://boutiquetradingstrategies.blogspot.ca/2015/08/renko-trading-strategies-3.html
http://boutiquetradingstrategies.blogspot.ca/2015/08/renko-trading-strategies-2.html
http://boutiquetradingstrategies.blogspot.ca/2015/08/renko-trading-strategies-1.html

Saturday, August 8, 2015

CCI 200 TrendlineBreak Trading Strategy as at August 8, 2015











Opportunities to use the CCI 200 Trendline Break are on every currency pair whether using a Renko trading strategy or the regular bars.












Here are a couple articles giving additional insights as to how to use the CCI Indicator.


A Simple CCI Strategy for Scalpers - DailyFX
 Wed, 25 Jun 2014 19:02:21 GMT
A Simple CCI Strategy for ScalpersDailyFXOne of the hardest steps a trader must take before scalping their favorite Forex pair is creating a strategy. While strategies can range from the complex to the mundane, creating a plan for trading the market ...

Read more ...



Time Scalping Entries With CCI - DailyFX
 Wed, 07 May 2014 19:06:13 GMT
Time Scalping Entries With CCIDailyFXThis is especially true for scalpers looking to take advantage of quick changes in price and momentum in the market. Normally an oscillator can be used to simplify this process and give traders a clear execution s ...

Read more ...

Is Your Broker Safe From Identity Theft Attacks?

With the rise in identity theft occurrences across a wide spectrum of industries and government offices it may be prudent to ensure that your trading strategy is being executed through a broker that has sufficient security in place.

There is not much benefit to having your private and financial information in the public domain and being sold to the highest bidder by the hacker community.

This article appears in the blog of Tripwire.


Five Men Arrested in Connection with the 2014 JPMorgan Hack



In August of 2014, it was reported that a group of hackers had exploited a vulnerability in the websites of JPMorgan. After breaking into the company’s network, the attackers then allegedly staged additional attacks that were custom-made to JPMorgan’s servers, which gained them access to internal systems on which customer account data was stored.
Several months later, investigators revealed that the criminals, who were believed to be Russian in origin, used zero-day exploits to gain access to the sensitive data of 76 million households and 7 million small businesses. Their analysis also suggested that the hack may have occurred as a result of a misconfiguration on one of JPMorgan’s servers for which two-factor authentication had been disabled, a security oversight which may have led to the compromise of an additional 90 servers before the attack was detected and ultimately thwarted.
It has been nearly a year since the hack against JPMorgan occurred. However, authorities may finally be closing in on those responsible for the incident.
jpmorgan
Source: Wealthy Debates
On Tuesday of last week, federal authorities in Israel arrested two men—Gary Shalon and Ziv Orenstein—who were indicted over an alleged pump-and-dump scheme by a Manhattan federal grand jury back in June. Their operation involved artificially inflating the value of low-volume stocks and then selling them at an elevated price to users through spam e-mail.
The Manhattan U.S. Attorney’s Office has stated that it will seek the extradition of Shalon and Orenstein so that the two can stand trial in the United States.
Israeli authorities also sought the arrest of Joshua Samuel Aaron in connection with the pump-and-dump scheme, but he did not return to Israel by the middle of the month as federal authorities had expected he would. According to The New York Times, photographs on social media suggest that Aaron may currently be in Russia with his wife Alona Chaim Aaron.
Meanwhile, the Federal Bureau of Investigation last week arrested Anthony R. Murgio and Yuri Lebedev for running an unlicensed Bitcoin exchange called Coin.mx. The two men allegedly traded more than $1.8 million worth of Bitcoin on behalf of tens of thousands of customers, including victims of ransomware attacks. These deals occurred in violation of U.S. federal anti-money-laundering legislation.
At first glance, the crimes of the five men appear unrelated to the JPMorgan hack. However, federal authorities consider the men’s arrest a crucial first step in gathering further evidence that might implicate one or more of them in the Wall Street attacks that targeted Fidelity Investments Ltd., E*Trade Financial Corp., and other financial institutions in addition to JPMorgan last summer. The FBI also believes that the men, whom investigators have concluded lack the requisite computer skills to have carried out the JPMorgan hack, couldhelp lead them to an elite group of Russian criminals who is believed to have been the true mastermind behind the breach.
Spokesmen for both the U.S. Manhattan Attorney’s office and JPMorgan have declined comment on the men’s arrest.
Title image courtesy of ShutterStock

Thursday, August 6, 2015

Recent Gold Trading Strategy As At August 6, 2015





Fear Spreading In The Global Financial System Pushes Gold & Silver Eagle Sales ... - SilverSeek.com
Sat, 01 Aug 2015 21:11:09 GMT
Fear Spreading In The Global Financial System Pushes Gold & Silver Eagle Sales ...SilverSeek.comWith the continued uncertainty in the global financial system, investors purchased record Gold and Silver Eagles. Sales of Gold and Silver Eagles remained ...
Read more ...


Gold Starts August with Decline; Silver Eagle Sales Top 28M - CoinNews.net
Mon, 03 Aug 2015 20:01:55 GMT
Gold Starts August with Decline; Silver Eagle Sales Top 28MCoinNews.netPrecious metals futures kicked off the new trading week and month with losses ranging from 0.5% for gold to 1.8% for platinum. Gold edged near a fresh 5-1/2-year settlement low. G ...
Read more ...


XAU/USD Silent For Second Consecutive Day - Action Forex
 Thu, 06 Aug 2015 08:37:00 GMT
XAU/USD Silent For Second Consecutive DayAction ForexXAU/USD Silent For Second Consecutive Day. '(That) appears to be a level [1,080] that many traders have put their stop-loss in because every time it breaches that level there's a swift decline.' - ...
Read more ...


Gold (XAUUSD) Remains Capped - Preserves Bearish Momentum - CFD Trading
 Wed, 05 Aug 2015 15:23:00 GMT
CFD TradingGold (XAUUSD) Remains Capped - Preserves Bearish MomentumCFD TradingLooking at the XAUUSD chart on my end, you can see we're stuck in this very tight range. Another component that I'm watching is the RSI. Not only do we have that bearish m ...
Read more ...

Wednesday, August 5, 2015

EURUSD Trading Strategy as at August 5, 2015




This chart is a Renko Chart with the TMA Bands, 10 pip bars. The Renko Trading Strategy is easily defined with the bands.




USDOLLAR Index Nears Flag Top as EUR/USD Loses Triangle Support - DailyFX
Wed, 05 Aug 2015 11:08:16 GMT
DailyFXUSDOLLAR Index Nears Flag Top as EUR/USD Loses Triangle SupportDailyFXAfter a rather passive start to the week economic-data wise, event risk should pick up quite considerably over the next three days, starting with today's duo of significant ...
Read more ...


EUR/USD halts three-day losing streak, amid mixed US data - Investing.com
Wed, 05 Aug 2015 21:55:30 GMT
EUR/USD halts three-day losing streak, amid mixed US dataInvesting.comInvesting.com -- EUR/USD rose slightly on Wednesday halting a three-day losing streak, amid mixed economic data in the U.S. ahead of Friday's critical jobs report for the month of ...
Read more ...


EUR/USD orderboard - ForexLive
Thu, 06 Aug 2015 00:28:56 GMT
EUR/USD orderboardForexLiveAll the biggest trading floors in the world have screens locked on ForexLive™. We provide real-time forex news and analysis at the highest level while making it accessible for less-experienced traders.and moreï¾ »
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EUR/USD Little Higher - Benzinga
http://news.google.comEUR/USD Little HigherBenzingaEUR/USD is trading at 1.0904, up 0.0019. The pair is trading very choppy and largely rangebound. Market talk continues about U.S. economic data and the U.S. Federal Reserve Monetary policy in the months ahead. German fact ...
Read more ...

USDJPY Trading Strategy As At August 5, 2015





This is a Renko chart, 10 pip bars. This Renko Trading Strategy makes use of the TMA bands, a simple and clean chart.









Forex technical analysis: USDJPY gets it's lap in - ForexLive
 Wed, 05 Aug 2015 13:49:19 GMT
ForexLiveForex technical analysis: USDJPY gets it's lap inForexLiveThe USDJPY is completing it's lap as it completed a fall after the weaker than expected US ADP employment change report (185K vs. 215K estimate). The move lower (which was started pri ...
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USDJPY - Vulnerable Below The 124.47/57 Zone - Forex Crunch
 Wed, 05 Aug 2015 17:18:00 GMT
USDJPY - Vulnerable Below The 124.47/57 ZoneForex CrunchConversely, resistance comes in at the 124.47/57 levels where a break will target the 125.00 level. Below here if seen will aim at the 125.50 level followed by the 126.00 level. On the whole, US ...
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Forex technical analysis: USDCAD, USDJPY, USDCHF, NZDUSD make new day extremes - ForexLive
 Tue, 04 Aug 2015 18:23:14 GMT
ForexLiveForex technical analysis: USDCAD, USDJPY, USDCHF, NZDUSD make new day extremesForexLiveAtlanta Fed Lockhart said he saw liftoff in September and the dollar soared. New extremes have been made (at least for the day) in the EURUSD, USDCHF, USD ...
Read more ...


USD/JPY Technical Analysis: July Highs Pressured Anew - DailyFX
 Wed, 05 Aug 2015 06:13:05 GMT
DailyFXUSD/JPY Technical Analysis: July Highs Pressured AnewDailyFXThe US Dollar is attempting to renew upside momentum against the Japanese Yen, with prices moving to test July's highs once again. Near-term resistance is at 124.55, the 38.2% Fibonac ...
Read more ...