Showing posts with label US Dollar Index. Show all posts
Showing posts with label US Dollar Index. Show all posts

Saturday, August 15, 2015

US Dollar Index Trading Strategy As At August 15, 2015


The US Dollar Index will certainly affect the trading strategies of the several currency pairs that make up this basket.

There is much discussion in the United States and elsewhere as to when interest rates may start to move higher and that will certainly affect all of the currencies.

Lets have a look at several charts and see what clues we can discover as to what may be a future direction.

This first chart has the Macd and a quick glance shows a bearish divergence. You will see that there is quite an amount of Bearish influence showing as you glance at these charts.




This next chart, a daily chart shows a bearish Fibonacci Pattern which seems to confirm the bearish divergence on the Macd.



Now we have the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart showing that price is above the cloud. It may be that the cloud is going to provide support and prevent much of a movement south, perhaps a few ranging days are ahead.



Another Bearish Fibonacci Pattern on the monthly chart.




We can see on this chart that price is below the pivot and has been fluctuating above support, directionless, so far.



Price has moved below the weekly pivot and also below the monthly pivot.




Here is more discussion by several authors. You will see a variance in expectations as to direction.

US Dollar Index Forecast August 17, 2015, Technical Analysis - FX Empire
http://news.google.com Sat, 15 Aug 2015 04:53:00 GMT
FX EmpireUS Dollar Index Forecast August 17, 2015, Technical AnalysisFX EmpireThe US Dollar Index went back and forth during the course of the session on Friday, bouncing off the 96 level for support. With that being the case, the market looks as if ...
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US Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – August 14, 2015 Forecast - FX Empire
http://news.google.com Fri, 14 Aug 2015 11:22:28 GMT
FX EmpireUS Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – August 14, 2015 ForecastFX EmpireSeptember U.S. Dollar Index futures are trading slightly lower shortly before the cash market opening. For the second consecutive day, the market is trading i ...
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Dollar Slips This Week on Blurred Picture for US Rates - Wall Street Journal
http://news.google.com Fri, 14 Aug 2015 20:18:39 GMT
USA TODAYDollar Slips This Week on Blurred Picture for US RatesWall Street JournalThe dollar edged broadly lower this week as uncertainty over China and depressed global inflation pressures clouded investors' view on U.S. interest rates and limited t ...
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The Week Ahead: How Important Is China or The Dollar To Your Portfolio? - Forbes
http://news.google.com Sat, 15 Aug 2015 12:49:44 GMT
ForbesThe Week Ahead: How Important Is China or The Dollar To Your Portfolio?ForbesI began analyzing the financial markets in 1982 when I became the research director for a financial advisory firm and provided regular market analysis on stocks, commo ...
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China hoarding gold in move to challenge dollar - WND.com
http://news.google.com Sat, 15 Aug 2015 01:25:38 GMT
WND.comChina hoarding gold in move to challenge dollarWND.comBorneman noted the IMF is scheduled to meet in October, and on the agenda is whether to allow China's currency into the SDR pool, a basket of currencies that includes the U.S. dollar, the e ...
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Pound to Dollar Rate Forecast to Decline from Here - Pound Sterling Live
http://news.google.com Sat, 15 Aug 2015 10:58:00 GMT
Exchange Rates UKPound to Dollar Rate Forecast to Decline from HerePound Sterling Live“Sterling outperformance though largely stemmed from euro strength against the dollar. Underlying sentiment for the pound suffered in data this week that showed the ...
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Dollar Looks for Fed Move as Major Counterparts Gain Ground - DailyFX
http://news.google.com Sat, 15 Aug 2015 03:34:00 GMT
DailyFXDollar Looks for Fed Move as Major Counterparts Gain GroundDailyFXThe 'Summer Lull' doesn't do the US Dollar any favors. As a favored haven currency, the reduced volatility - and thereby risk - curbs its innate demand. Further, as market depth ...
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Friday, November 21, 2014

US Dollar Index Tracks Higher and Higher

Where will it stop?


The US Dollar Index has been on a tear for many weeks and shows no sign of easing off the pace.  Some blame the Quantitative Easing and some blame the international central banks for this movement, no one really knows what to attribute it to.

The US Dollar Index reflects the interchange between the US Dollar and other currencies, a basket made up of Euro, Japanese Yen, Pound Sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona, Swiss Franc.

The index is traded as a futures contract.

I have here a Point & Figure chart which shows that the future price target of $106.00, quite a distance to travel from today's level of $88.36.

Today it is at a level of resistance as you can see on the chart.




Recent developments in Japan and Europe have devalued their currencies and pushed the US Dollar higher.

Today China reduced their interest rates to boost a sluggish economy adding more to the upward move of the US Dollar.

The US Dollar Index will certainly be something to watch regarding any dollar related trading strategy.

I have some commentary below which you may find relevant  and interesting.


Speculators' US dollar net long highest since 2008 -CFTC, Reuters - Reuters

Fri, 21 Nov 2014 20:56:57 GMT
Speculators' US dollar net long highest since 2008 -CFTC, ReutersReutersNov 21 (Reuters) - Speculators increased their net long U.S. dollar position in the latest week to its largest in six years, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission sh ...

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The Long U.S. Dollar Trade Is Very Crowded - Wall Street Daily

Fri, 21 Nov 2014 10:06:28 GMT
After all, everyone seems to be long the U.S. dollar, which has been trouncing both the yen and euro over the past few months. But in reality, forex trading is one of the mos ...

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How to Invest to Play a Stronger U.S. Dollar - Barron's

Fri, 21 Nov 2014 19:01:24 GMT
The GIC believes the U.S. dollar will probably strengthen further in 2015. While we are already overweight dollar assets, the tactical changes made today further increase this overweight pos ...

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US Dollar Strength Shouldn't Undermine the Recovery - Institutional Investor

Fri, 21 Nov 2014 06:07:48 GMT
In 2010 policymakers roundly criticized Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega for engaging in extreme rhetoric when he brought up the possibility of the ...


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The next week will probably provide more volatility and great trade entries.

Good Trading.!!

Monday, November 10, 2014

The Daily Look as at November 10, 2014



Markets were stronger today and some new highs achieved






FTSE 100 hits a six week high as Wall Street continues to break records - The Guardian
Mon, 10 Nov 2014 16:56:14 GMT
FTSE 100 hits a six week high as Wall Street continues to break recordsThe GuardianOverall the FTSE 100 finished 44.01 points higher at 6611.25, its best level since 30 September, despite continuing concerns about the situation in Ukraine ...

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FTSE rises towards five-week high, miners rally - Economic Times
 Mon, 10 Nov 2014 12:28:21 GMT
EDINBURGH: Britain's top share index advanced towards a five-week high on Monday, with miners rising on hopes that mixed data from China, the world's biggest metals consumer, may prompt the ...


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Asian markets gain; Hang Seng, Shanghai Composite up - Moneycontrol.com
 Mon, 10 Nov 2014 02:43:30 GMT
Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.85 percent or 436.37 points at 23,986.61. Singapore's Straits Times added 0.70 percent or 22.89 points at 3,309.28. South Korea's Seoul C ...


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Nasdaq Celebrates Veterans Day and Veterans Hiring Initiatives at the Opening ... - Nasdaq
 Mon, 10 Nov 2014 15:13:29 GMT
 Members of John Jay College's Veterans Corporate Roundtable will visit the Nasdaq MarketSite in Times Square in honor of Veterans Day and to celebrate veterans hir ...

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Top 10 Nasdaq-traded stocks posting largest volume increases - Fox Business
Mon, 10 Nov 2014 23:32:23 GMT
ArQule Inc. : Approximately 1,711,500 shares changed hands, a 735.4 percent increase over its 65-day average volume. The shares rose $.11 or 10.4 percent to $1.17. Athens Bancsha ...
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NYMEX crude holds steady in early Asia with ample supplies seen globally - Investing.com
Tue, 11 Nov 2014 02:03:02 GMT
NYMEX crude holds steady in early Asia with ample supplies seen globallyInvesting.comU.S. hydraulic fracking operations cost more to extract oil than producers in the Middle East, leaving Iraq and others including Saudi Arabia hoping lowe ...

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US crude stocks likely decreased 500000 barrels last week: analysts - Platts
Mon, 10 Nov 2014 21:20:37 GMT
US commercial crude stocks are expected to have fallen by 500,000 barrels in the reporting week that ended November 7, according to a Platts analysis and a survey of oil analyst ...


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GLD: Please Do Not Overreact - Part 1 - Seeking Alpha (registration)
Mon, 10 Nov 2014 16:31:50 GMT
It seems the precious metals market has purchased a one way ticket to "bear-town," and is fast becoming quite despondent. So, while many of you believe I am ...

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GLD: Please Do Not Overreact - Part 2 (GLD) - Seeking Alpha (registration)
Mon, 10 Nov 2014 16:42:37 GMT
The one factor I keep hearing more about is that the move in gold is all about the move in the dollar. The premise is that if you follow the dollar, then you will know the movemen ...

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Gold fails to hold gains as stocks trade higher - MarketWatch
Mon, 10 Nov 2014 20:48:40 GMT
Gold prices could see a spike in volatility at the end of the month when Swiss voters go to the polls to essentially decide whether the Swiss National Bank would have to hold at lea ...


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Sunday, November 9, 2014

The Daily Look As at November 9, 2014



The Asian markets have opened and the US Dollar Index is retreating, allowing several currency pairs to rise. There could be some volatility for traders as this week goes on, different countries will be addressing their economic concerns and perhaps trying to position their currencies so as to spur employment.


Here is a chart of the US Dollar Index and you can see the reversal pattern and today's bar indicating a drop. Also notice the divergence between the price and the indicator, there may be a significant price adjustment coming. Or... the rise may continue unabated, Divergences are not always indicative as to what is happening.







We will get more of an idea as to what may becoming in the currency markets this week once the European markets open for trading in a few hours.

In the mean time I have a couple articles that you may find interesting. It may be that China will want to upset the US and the current currency arrangements. 

The articles are showing that several currencies are rising as the US Dollar eases off. It is difficult to say if this move is temporary or long term, the recent move by the Bank of Japan to increase asset purchases was quite a surprise to many governments, the effects are still unknown.

We will know a lot more as days pass.

Have a great week ahead.!!



China hoarding gold to challenge US dollar? - USA TODAY

Sun, 09 Nov 2014 13:32:15 GMT
China hoarding gold to challenge US dollar?USA TODAYIn a world filled with fiat currencies, how important is gold's role in the financial system? Proponents often view the precious metal as a hedge against economic chaos, while critics typic ...

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Australian dollar jumps on US jobs data - The Australian

 Sun, 09 Nov 2014 20:17:21 GMT
The US dollar fell against all major currencies after non-farm payrolls disappointed analyst expectations. The US economy added 214,000 jobs in October, compared to forecasts of 235,000. BK Asset M ...

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US Dollar mid-term top makes Precious Metal and Energy Stocks a Buy - The Market Oracle

Sun, 09 Nov 2014 13:33:14 GMT
I decided to do an important update of the US Dollar Index, because Friday's rise in Gold and gold stocks alongside oil indicated a likely top. I have been e ...

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Why a Strong US Dollar is the Ultimate Economic Stimulus - The Market Oracle

Sun, 09 Nov 2014 13:33:14 GMT
The strong dollar has resulted in an interesting feedback loop: as the value of the dollar increases a combination of steady U.S. economic growth and corresponding weakness in E ...

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Ringgit opens slightly higher against US dollar - New Straits Times Online

Mon, 10 Nov 2014 02:23:51 GMT
KUALA LUMPUR: The ringgit was traded slightly higher against the US dollar in early trade on buying support for the domestic currency. At 9.30am, the local unit was quoted at 3.33 ...

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Friday, November 7, 2014

What will be the Direction of the Markets Today?



What market moves will happen this morning?


With the US Non Farm Payroll report due at 8:30 EST can we expect to see a recovery in the price of Gold and a decline in the US Dollar Index?

Overnight the US Dollar Index has hesitated a little with traders waiting to see the economic reports due at 8:30.


US Dollar Index

Gold fell overnight and has since recovered a bit, the chartists may be encouraged by the long wick on the most recent candle
Gold

All in all, the markets may be volatile today depending on the Non Farm Payroll report, Considering the record highs being seen this week on the indexes a favorable report may see an exciting finish to this week..

The Daily Look As At November 7, 2014

A Look At What We Have To Work With For Our Trading Strategies.


Hang Seng is struggling to advance.


Hang Seng

Brent Crude is still trying to go lower


Brent Crude

Nasdaq is at record highs, what will stop it?


Nasdaq 100


Oil is in such great supply at this time there seems to be no bottom

Nymex WT Crude




Gold


Dollar Index may be reaching a level where it will have a rest.

Dollar Index

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

US Dollar Pairs Trading Strategies (as at August 26, 2014)

Will the US Dollar Index affect your trading strategy today?





Yesterday I pointed out that some divergence had appeared and that the US Dollar Index may be slowed in its advance, and sure enough, there is some weakness appearing this morning.


Using the standard Macd indicator to detect the divergence, I am sure that several other oscillators will show similar.


This can affect your strategies with several of the currency pairs as they will be adjusting to the US Dollar.


US Dollar Index Forecast August 26, 2014, Technical Analysis - FX Empire
http://news.google.com Tue, 26 Aug 2014 04:53:05 GMT
FX EmpireUS Dollar Index Forecast August 26, 2014, Technical AnalysisFX EmpireThe US Dollar Index gapped higher during the session on Monday, clearing the $82.50 level. With that being the case, the market looks like it's ready to continue to go all ...
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This article from Bloomberg has some interesting insights as to how the US Dollar moves in realtion to rates, be sure to have a look.


US Dollar Rallies Precede Fed Tightening Cycles: Chart - Businessweek
http://news.google.com Tue, 26 Aug 2014 01:40:00 GMT
US Dollar Rallies Precede Fed Tightening Cycles: ChartBusinessweekThe CHART OF THE DAY shows the U.S. Dollar Index climbed about 7 percent during periods six to nine months before the start of the previous three central-bank tightenings started in Fe ...
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